Is Now the Time to Become More Bullish?
With the VIX retreating from close to 30%, are buying opportunities showing up?
Hi fellow Tortoise,
In this webinar, we’ll talk about:
what’s driving today’s uncertainty?
what the VIX tells us about the near-term forward returns?
update on our portfolio performance and how view current positioning. Since our Substack’s inception, we’re up 1.91% after transaction costs, and there’s quite a bit of time value left in the options we sold (expiring next week). Even if the markets don’t move next week, our portfolio value will hit a new all-time high next Friday. It has to be said: the past two weeks have been increasingly volatile for the stock market, but our performance has been markedly consistent. Meanwhile, we think it’s worthwhile repeating this: don’t expect the portfolio to rally as much as the market whenever things clear up. But, we’re now looking to add more static directional exposure following the recent market volatility. You can find our Portfolio and Transactions Sheet as of March 14, 2025 at the bottom of this blog;
Below you can see the net return (after transaction fees) for our options strategy since December 17, 2024, the date on which we launched our Substack.
We’d summarize it as: all’s going according to plan, based on a repetitive strategy, while acknowledging that if things turn south, even our approach won’t be spared. Nonetheless, there’s a difference between losing 2% vs. 25%.
The webinar can be watched below, with the downloadable slides and transcript added as attachments.